Population Aging is Not a Real Problem in the US (Not Today, and Not For At Least 80 Years)
An aging population is a threat to our way of life.
Or at least, that’s what many people argue.¹ I suspect this is true, but on a superficial level. The threat is based on how our economic system works rather than what is physically feasible.
Because we can work much less and still care for a much older population.
Population aging is a physical and social problem that stems from an increasing part of the population becoming unproductive.
Everyone has needs to satisfy.
Satisfying them can be hard, and fewer people can do the work when a population ages. The more elders there are, the harder the youngsters must compensate.
Imagine a farm with 10 residents who must work 30 hours per week to feed themselves. If five people get sick, the remaining five must work 60 hours each — and if three remain, they must work 100 hours each. At some point, they will become unwilling to do the work, which is a social challenge. And, at some point, it will also become physically impossible. Even if willing, the last worker must work 300 hours per week — which is more than the 168 hours available.
An aging population is a physical problem caused by an increasing number of people becoming unproductive. On top is a socio-economic challenge: even if we are physically able, people may be unwilling to do the work. And as the physical challenge increases, so does the pressure on the socio-ecomic system.
It is both a physical problem and a challenge for the game we play as a society.²
If an aging population becomes a problem in the US before 2100, the root cause will be the socio-economic system (and not Nature).
Until (and long after) the year 2100, population aging will not be a physical problem in the US. This is illustrated in the following graph.
The curve is akin to the farmers in our example, representing the minimum work required to keep the population healthy. The dots represent where we are and where we are going: 15.8% of the population was aged 65+ in 2019 (the red dot), estimated to double to 30.5% by 2100 (the green dot).⁴ Because of an aging population, there will be 10% fewer working-age people (ages 15–64) who can share the work by 2100. Today, the needs of the US population can be cared for with 10 hours per working-age person per week — in 2100, it can be done with 12 hours.
Let me say that again: in 80 years, we will only need to work 2 more hours per week to care for the entire population. And that’s with 2019 productivity levels — we can work even less if productivity increases. In fact, we have so much room for maneuvering that if the working-age population dropped from 65.5% to only 16.5% overnight, we could still care for the entire population with a 40-hour workweek.
An aging population, therefore, will not be a physical problem in the US for at least 80 years, and probably well beyond.
And if the problem isn’t physical, then it must be social. Consequently, if an aging US population becomes a problem in the foreseeable future, the root cause will be the economic system.
Those who can benefit will try and convince you otherwise.
Don’t let them.⁵
Footnotes
¹For an example of those who argue that population aging will be a problem, see 1) Borji, writing for Investopedia, who argues that an aging population “could significantly undermine the high living standard enjoyed in many advanced economies.” [1] Also, see the YouTube video by Kurzgesagt titled “Why Korea is Dying Out”, https://youtu.be/LBudghsdByQ.
²For more about the game we play as a society, see Society is Built on Games — and We Should Play a Better One.
³For sources of the graph, see [2], [3], [4], and [5].
⁴For data of the age distributions of today and the future, see [2].
⁵This goes without saying, but you should be convinced if they present more compelling evidence or arguments, or if circumstances have changed.
Bibliography
[1] Borji, H.S. “4 Global Economic Issues of an Aging Population.” Investopedia. Accessed October 18, 2023. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/011216/4-global-economic-issues-aging-population.asp.
[2] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. “World Population Prospects,” 2022. https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/CSV/ (retrieved October 13, 2023, 12:42:26 CET)
[3] Glasmeier, Amy K. “Living Wage Calculator.” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2022. livingwage.mit.edu (accessed 26 August 2022)
[4] US Census Bureau, Population Division. Dataset “National and State Population Estimates” in database “National Population Totals: 2010–2020”. US Census Bureau, July 2021. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2020/national/totals/nst-est2020.csv (retrieved 24 August 2022).
[5] Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar. “Penn World Table 10.0.” Groningen Growth and Development Centre, 2021. https://doi.org/10.15141/S5Q94M.
